Narrow victory shows Tech’s vulnerability
By Don Williams / Avalanche Journal
For some time, I’ve thought the following: In college football, if you aren’t one of the top five teams in the country in terms of talent, inevitably you lose a game or two to those in the middle of the pack.
Williams
Anymore, I’m not sure I believe even that. Not after the weekly carnage at the top last season and what happened to USC, Georgia and Florida just days apart this season. No one’s safe right now.
That includes Texas Tech.
Being flat’s not the reason the Red Raiders nearly got beat in front of a homecoming crowd Saturday against Nebraska. Pat answers don’t apply. The Raiders didn’t strike me as flat in a 37-31 overtime victory. Nor was this a case of “Typical Tech,” the program that raises expectations, then gives its followers a shot to the gut.
Instead, on display Saturday was a team that plays hard, sports abundant talent and still has its share of vulnerabilities.
Let us count the ways the Raiders showed they can be beat: There’s the kicking game. There’s the pass defense. There’s Mike Leach’s risk-taking. There’s being able to average 48 points yet lay a three-and-out with games on the line. And there’s the weird ability to have really productive running backs, yet not be able to make a yard when 1 and exactly 1 is needed.
All of which makes Texas Tech like a lot of other good teams in college football. Legitimately, the talent base has been elevated to top-10, top-15 range, but remember, not even top-5’s foolproof these days. So Saturday, like a guy doing 65 in a 55, the Raiders got off with a warning: Bring your best game at all times or prepare to lose that spotless record. And since a 6-0 start has come around only five times here, let’s go ahead and make undefeated the goal, OK?
Some fixing’s got to take place for it to happen.
Start with the kicking game, which needed a touchdown-saving tackle on a kickoff return. After Donnie Carona made an extra point off the upright and had a PAT partially blocked, making overtime even more nerve-wracking, Leach gave the first indication of possibly changing kickers, even if only for short placements.
Even if Leach opts for change there, he’ll never change his gambling ways. On that note, we might have seen the all-timer Saturday – less than four minutes left in regulation, tie game, fourth-and-5 from the Tech 36. Nearly any other coach automatically punts.
“I hate to punt. There’s always an internal debate,” Leach said before gesturing over each shoulder. “The devil guy here. The angel guy here. The devil guy went over and popped the angel guy, so we went from there.”
As always, the risk-taker guy gives us writer guys funny lines to write.
Of course, the Raiders might have just handed the game to Nebraska – a team that does have a really accurate kicker – if not for the subsequent bomb to Mike Crabtree that worked.
So we can joke about it this time. But maybe not next time.
And either way, there’s other stuff the Raiders can’t joke about.
Such as why, right after Nebraska narrowed it to 24-17 early in the fourth quarter, the Raiders pick there, of all places, for their one three-and-out. Tell me if I’m nitpicking here. But last season, up at Oklahoma State, the Raiders did virtually the same thing – went three-and-out late in the fourth quarter when they’d done as they wished in building a 45-42 lead.
Don’t tell me about the pretty stats. Show me a seize-the-game mentality when it most needs seizing. Then there’s no overtime to sweat.
Again, none of what happened Saturday can be chalked up to the Raiders being flat. I really believe that. Others saw it that way, too.
“I don’t have a lot of misgivings,” Leach said. “And if we’d lost it, I don’t have a ton, because I thought we played really, really hard. … We’ve got everybody motivated. We’ve got everybody focused. We’ve got everybody trying hard.”
Nebraska quarterback Joe Ganz managed the game beautifully. Until the very last play, he never put his team in trouble. The stat that explains it best is that the Huskers averaged 6.6 yards Saturday on first down, also the down on which they got 238 of their 471 yards.
First down sets the tone for the Tech defense. Most other games this season, it gets them into second-and-long and third-and-long and gets their sub-package pass rushers – disruptive people like McKinner Dixon and Daniel Howard – onto the field. Saturday, those guys were on the sideline nearly as much as the Tech offense, whose 48 plays almost broke the school record low.
Presented with so much second-and-5 or shorter, the front four couldn’t rush with reckless abandon. Not that Ganz was an easy target, flipping what seemed to be nearly all his passes off play-action and bootlegs. The secondary felt it, giving up 357 yards passing – their third time this season to give up 250 or more. Frankly, I thought that trend would have reversed itself by now. But Ganz picked on whomever the Raiders put at one corner, be it Brent Nickerson, L.A. Reed or LaRon Moore.
At one point, before Jamar Wall’s interception in overtime sent the crowd home happy, FSN’s television cameras searched out the Tech fan here and there, slack-jawed at the upset brewing before him.
It didn’t come to that. But now the Raiders know they have work to do, or else their time’s coming, too.
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Don,
I agree and respectfully disagree with your points in this article.
Point #1 regarding the kicking game: Totally agree, Corona does not need to kick for Tech again this year. I kicked in high school and was better then he (a scholarship player).
Point #2 regarding Coach Leach’s gambling: I would definitely agree with you. In fact, most of his gambles this year have been ill advised; however, in this game if we would have punted to them tied at 24 with 4 minutes to go we would have lost…our defense would have lost the game for us – period. It was a good gamble this time.
Point #3 regarding pass defense: It wasn’t our secondary, the root cause lies with our MLB and SAM LB play (Duncan and Williams). The play by Brian Duncan (and his backup Victor Hunter) is absolutely atrocious at MLB. I counted at least 15 plays where Brian was needed to make a tackle and either whiffed all together or took a terrible angle at the running back and was taken out of the play. He is so slow that he just can’t make plays against the running backs (and btw, his backup Hunter is even slower).
If you go back to the tape our front four did a decent job of either consuming blocks or getting pressure on both the quarterback and running back all the while competing against 7 and even 8 man lines. There were a number of occasions where the line did its job and allowed our MLB to isolate on tackling the running back (unobstructed) and it didn’t get done. In addition to our MLB play, our SAM linebacker (Marlon Williams) is a major liability in passing situations and always seems to get out flanked on the outside on running plays.
Coach Ruffin needs to learn (hopefully really quick too) that you need speed more than size these days (look at the UT and OU LBs…they are not that big but boy can they run). I think it would be fine to have Duncan in for short yardage situations but not more than that. I would actually suggest looking at moving a player like McBath to SAM…someone that is fast as lighting and can hit like a “son of a b”, and then move someone like Daniel Howard to MLB…someone that takes great angles to plays and has the speed / quickness to manuever with the RBs (note, I’m not saying these exact guys just someone like them).
Regarding Ruffin’s scheme today. I actually did see a few blitzes and 6 man fronts, but I think the issue has more to do with timing than frequency. He tended to bring folks on first down and play more conservative on third down. This led to a crappy 3rd down conversion rate for us today…it is almost like he doesn’t want to get the guys off the field on third down. If you look at the great defenses today it is third down when they send tons of pressure and Ruffin needs to learn this. Send 5-6 guys on third down and you won’t give them enough time to make a big play on you…I sure hope he learns this before the KU game.
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Nebraska drew up a great game plan for Tech. Control the clock and keep our fast strike offense on the sideline. Nebraska was able to do this because of the tremendous gains made on first down. When you average close to 7 yds per 1st down, it doesn’t take much to pick up the other 3 yds and maintain a drive. The defense cannot afford to give up such big yardage on 1st downs. Also, special teams is our most glaring weak spot. We gave up too much yardage on kick off returns. We missed too many PATs and got fooled on a fake field goal. We still have a lot of things to address going into next Saturday’s game against A&M.
On a side note. If we think we can roll over teams every Saturday, we are setting ourselves up for failure. Although not as prevalent as the NFL, a lot of parity exists on the college level as well. Just ask USC and now Tech.
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Don,
One final point on our LB play…
I did a quick analysis of our defensive play against Nebraska comparing them to OU and Texas (from their game yesterday). Take a look at the staggering stats below regarding who made defensive tackles:
OU – made 68 defensive tackles against UT
* 31 (or 47%) by the LBs
* 23 (or 35%) by the Sec
* 14 (or 21%) by the Line
UT – made 66 defensive tackles against OU
* 27 (or 41%) by the LBs
* 24 (or 36%) by the Sec
* 15 (or 23%) by the Line
TT – made 72 defensive tackles against Neb
* 42 (or 64%) by the Sec
* 18 (or 27%) by the LBs
* 12 (or 18%) by the Line
Bottom line:
1. OU and UT defenses are really great and they look amazingly similar from a stat perspective
2. Our secondary made freaking 64% of the tackles because our LBs whiffed so freaking much (go watch the tape)
3. Our line (against 7 and 8 men fronts) made almost as many tackles as our sorry LBs
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I agree that Mike Leach has gambled in the past on 4th and short, but it looked like the intention, and Graham even said after the game, was to simply draw the defense off sides on a hard cadence. If you go back and look at the play, they were offsides. The officials just didn’t call it, and on what should have been a free play Harrell to Crabtree worked out for us. I thought that was a smart idea that the officiating almost ruined.
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Same Tech Defense. It’s time Leach needs to get a real defensive coordinator.
Not a “Rah-rah” coach like Ruffin. If Auburn is the Anti-Texas Tech, or vise-versa, then do what another team in Big 12 does and hire away Auburn’s defensive coordinator. Don’t blame it on the little things Don.
Nebraska had the ball 40 minutes to 20 for Tech. Smae Tech Defense? One play stood out. A Nebraska receiver makes a catch and LaRon Moore comes up and makes a good hit. Moore gets up and starts talking smack. One thing, LaRon, Nebraska made the first down.
Same Tech Defense ?
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Don always tells it like it is…That’s why I like his opinions better than anybody else. No hype like Hyatt…Just truth!
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WOW. Bryant Bonner, I gotta say that I thought only in Nebraska do people who are not on the coaching staff think they know the game better. Guess they are everywhere. Percentages on tackles? Really? Wow, dude, you need to get a life. Seriously.
Chockster, TTU’s defense is sooo much better than it has been–if you can not see that, then you need to step back and get some better perspective. As an outsider, I can see the difference…
TTU is a much better team this year than in years past, primarily due to defense.
NU had a great game plan, and for once this year actually executed it. If it weren’t for some stupid false starts, a stupid late in on the QB, and some rather ticky-tack questionable holding calls, y’all would be talking about your first loss.
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iI ifs and buts were candy and nuts we’d all have a Merry Christmas!
The NU qb was ON. Kudos to NU, they played hard and had a great game plan and executed well. The Tech D will have to play better in regards to the lb’s and secondary to compete after next week.
Wreck’em!!!
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Raider fans:
EVERYONE in the Big 12 is playing to win, every time they play. When they play like they did against Tech on Saturday – NU can beat alot of good teams. Tech did not crumble and fold. Tech EARNED a win.
Ask yourself this question: How many folks from Missouri and OU would happily trade places with Texas Tech fans this week?
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Don, great column. I agree with Mr. Bonner. I don’t understand why we cannot recruit linebackers who run under 4.7. Have we had a serious set of LBs/SS since Z. Thomas and Marcus Coleman more than a decade ago?
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Chris, no we haven’t.
Stan, check the rankings? OU is still ahead of us.
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Great comments, Don. You nailed it.
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Hey Raider fans…CHILL…6-0 is 6-0…look at the teams on the top ten list…all top shelf programs…I saw the entire game on satellite
for the first time..(had been listening on sirius radio) saw some
things only a FB coach or REAL fan would notice…First..the Huskers
had a great game plan….kinda tough to stay on D for 2/3 of game
Offense made plays when absolutely necessary…stop hating on Leach and McNeill…unless you are there daily in meetings and practices just CHILL OUT and enjoy the ride…at the end of the day
all that matters is the W…yo Don let me hear from you!!!
NC HOMEBOY
World B Free
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All I ask is that I don’t have to see Carona again unless it is in a beer commercial (and yes I know the beer is spelled Corona and it isn’t very good either).
To go undefeated you have to win a game like this, maybe two. I don’t know if we can pull it off this year but I can promise you we won’t if we don’t get a better FG kicker. I am also tired of trying to get one yard on 3rd or 4th down calling a running a play from the shotgun. That is giving the defense way to much opportunity to penetrate the offensive line and make the stop.
Now go down to Kyle field and kick the crap out of TAMU and get ready to go to Lawerence as that will be a battle.
dk
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here is the deal, this is the stratagey that will be deployed for the remainder of the season, keep the “O” of the field and you have a shot at winning. This is the premise of my argument. Good teams, Great Teams an teams that win All have great coaching, personel utilization, I have said it for two years now, and I will go on record to say it again. In a games were we will be limited to few precious possessions ball distribution becomes critical, each series is compounded. Coaches have to script the plays, the 56 yarder to Britton was scripted, and frankly in big games he is a play maker and the stats bear it out. Great coaches know there players and the stats. Our “D” appears to be ready to do there part, Coaches need to step up and have a better scripted strategy for the games.
If I could tell the staff in person I would, this is not the time to gamble, now the odds and play the %’s down and distance. As for the 4th and one, off tackle and to the right is coaching, 1 or 3 hole left is where the % was. Luis and Ryan! A win is a win but this was a Good win, because of the poor coaching. Look at the last years kick off team average and say why is it down? who is on the team this year versus last year. In short, put the play makers on the field and get thim the ball, with balance and calculating decision. Tell the coaches
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I won’t complain about all of the questionable coaching decisions but there is one that really gets me. Please, please, please when Tech is faced with 3rd or 4th and inches don’t try and run the ball from the shotgun. The defense will most likely be jamming the middle and to voluntarily start from another 3-5 yards behind the line of scrimmage is just ridiculous.
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A few minor correction for the English Teacher.
(Know instead of now)
(Them instead of Thim)
personel on the K.O. Team vs last year.
“Guns Up” Go Raiders.
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Don
Great article but maybe you are not suprised by the extensive handoffs. I know Graham makes some of these calls but it seemend that we have reversed roles with Nebraska. Tech is trying to run the ball and then throw the deep pass and Nebraska is completing short passes all day.
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……. And after the other three upsets showed the value of any win, things are not so bad.
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Everyone has known for years that the key to beating Tech is to keep the offense off the field. No surprise there.
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You’re dead on with this assessment. However, that so-called gamble should have been a sure thing on that 4th and 4. The offense did their part, drawing Nebraska offsides for a “free play,” but the officials chose to be stupid as usual, and didn’t see it or didn’t call it. It was definitely offsides, and shouldn’t have had to come to Graham and Crabtree heroics like that.
Moreso though, this defense has to be fixed. No adjustments made after half, despite getting torched repeatedly by an “Average Joe Ganz,” which he really is. We made him look like Joe Montana though! We have to bring more pressure!! When we applied it, he threw a rare incomplete pass or the NU line held and was flagged appropriately!
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I agree with most of what Bryant Bonner says on those points about the defense, especially with this coaching staff’s obsession with size over speed.. no no!!! It should be the other way, like BB states above.
The premium on speed MUST be placed over size, particularly at the LB position. For years now under Leach/Lyle/McNeill, these LBs have been so slow and unable to get or create pressure.
Look at TCU’s D! THAT is what we need. Speed at the LB pos. They not only neutralized us before, but can do so against most spread teams. We need this in place so badly!
I did not think our front four got good pressure at all most of the day, and only when we feigned bliltz or actually brought the LBs up to the line and did blitz did we get pressure.
Blake Collier is one of the fastest LBs we have, and he is hurt, but when healthy, should be in there! And I agree with moving McBath to LB to help get speed, as the guy can hit and tackle. Marlon Williams is an invisible man when it comes to most competition, though he did do well against KSU. But if the competition is anything at all, he’s nowhere to be found!!
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There are some good points mentioned, but overall I think you have to look at the pass defense/lack of consistant pass rush. Go back and watch the K-State film. Freeman had about 2 incomplete passes the first half….but just couldn’t hit a receiver at all starting the 2nd half, but it wasn’t because the receivers weren’t open. It was bad passes and dropped balls. Unfortunately for K-State, their defense is BAD (see 500+ yds given up to ULALA).
In the Nebraska game…more of the same. Ganz was 36/44….where’s the pass defense? I think the game plan must be to leave the underneath open in some kind of “prevent” defense. But I saw SO MANY receivers during the game Sat. just running a route and sitting in a “HOLE” in the zone. We are going to get “picked apart” by Texas, Oklahoma AND OSU (not to mention KU) if we don’t get some speed in the LB area AND a different coverage scheme.
We’ve got a LONG way to go before that KU game in two weeks.
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Bonner,
You are right on. Expectations are high. To keep winning adjustments need to be made. I do appreciate wins and that is what TTU must do at Kyle Field and not look forward to Kansas as many in this blog have done. Go Tech!!! Beat the “Wrecking Who”
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The only problem with Don’s analogy is he left out the three 8 minute drives Nebraska had that all went for touchdowns.
They had their way with our conservative and predicatable defense and if Nebraska can do that, Lord help our squad when they line up against Oklahoma State, UT or OU. Oh my!
As for going for it on 4th and 4? They had to!
Given the defensive coaches unwillingness to change anything, Nebraska WAS going to score a touchdown once they got the ball back.
So, the decision was, do you punt and give it to them with 3:30 or so to play and make them go 60-70 yards and use up the WHOLE clock?
Or do you go for it? If you go for it you might get it. If you don’t, at least they score faster on the shorter field and you get the ball back with some time left on the clock.
Easy decision there Raider fans.
Finally, an assist MUST go to the Nebraska coaching staff. In overtime they elect to show off Ganz’s passing ability and I can’t for the life of me figure out why. I fully expected a steady diet of run plays mixed with a conservative pass or two until they scored.
Count me as one that would rather be good than lucky.
Dan P.
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Some very astute and informed comments from Tech fans all around the counrty. Tech,like the Texas Rangers baseball team and their historical lack of pitching continues to struggle defensively. We’ve recognized this for years, but nothing has changed (at least in the Leach era). Speed on defense and not heft is the answer as several contributors have recognized. Recruiting defensive players at Tech is like pulling teeth and until that changes we’re going to be slinging the ball all over West Texas, but can’t stop gran-ma!
Interestingly, I note that almost everbody, hopefully not the team, is looking ahead to the Kansas game and totally overlooking the Aggies. Better watch out, better not cry. These guys had rather beat Tech than Notre Dame on New Year’s day! You just can’t assume anything at the Big 12 level. Remember, we were a 201/2 favorite over Nebraska….at home. Does this week’s line sound familiar??
Joe B.
It is interesting to note that of most if not all of
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